Why is The Russia-Ukraine Conflict Occurring?

Anti-Russia protesters take to the
streets to voice their opinion

As Russia gain militarised control of Crimea, and the Crimean Provence set to become part of Russia, I want to explore why these set of events ever occurred, and whether the Second Cold War is upon us. Russia continues to move troops over the boarder, despite Russian Predident Vladmir Putin denying this.
     
Crimean MP's have voted to join Russia, with a 78-0 vote in favour, causing outrage with Crimean residents, and to further frustrate the locals, deputy prime minister Rustam Temirgaliev has said the upcoming referendum is only to confirm the split from Ukraine, and already considers Crimea

to be part of Russia. However, acting prime minister of Ukraine Arseniy Yatsenyuk has come forward, stating 'This is an illegitimate decision. There are no legal grounds to this referendum, and Crimea was, is and always will be part of Ukraine', and also went on to say the Ukrainian military will act within the law but will take action if there is any further Russian military penetrating into Ukraine.

SO WHAT CAUSED THE CONFLICT?


Into the tail end of last year, the Ukraine were set for a big economic agreement with the EU, the association agreement, but then president Viktor Yanukovyc said the Ukraine could not afford to cut off trade with Russia in favour of stronger EU ties, and later defended his decision by saying the offer did not involve enough financial aid. Russia also were against the agreement, but the EU ignored their 'veto'. Just a few days later, Ukraine had signed a new deal with Russia, worth around $15 billion in aid and included other economic benefits. This led to protests on the streets, which led to the government taking aggressive action, with riot squads and armed guards descending onto the streets. However, this only fuelled the conflict, with protesters filmed throwing Molotov's and boulders at police lines. Tension grew and soon, the death toll began to rise, and the encounters between protesters and government personnel grew sour, eventually leading to the protesters taking over the presidential accommodation, leaving their ousted leader to flee to Moscow, facing charges of the killing of protesters.

This alerted Russia that their ties with the Ukraine were diminishing, being quashed, by the fact that if the protesters rose to power, they would inevitably sign the deal with the EU, cutting ties to the Soviets all together. Russia, who have strong links with Crimea and many military bases there quickly sent over troops to seize the area, which is about the same size as Massachusetts.

WHAT WILL FOLLOW?

This is s strong vibe from Putin showing Russia are prepared to go to war, a scenario which would mean Russia would be kicked out of G8, in which they are supposed to be holding the next summit. Economic sanctions would also follow, but this would surely cut off the oil stream coming  from Russia, hurting most of Western Europe.

 However, the Kremlin has issued a statement saying that an invasion of Ukraine would not be against international law as they have permission from Yanukovyc.  But Obama has issued strict warnings to Russia, urging them to pull out the 100,000 troops now stationed in Ukraine, and also wants the Ukraine to form a new government and agree the the EU's offer.



Sources:

John Curran's Ukraine Conflict
BBC News